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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2023-07-14T19:10:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-07-14T19:10Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/25976/-1
CME Note: CME is faint and difficult to observe, seen as a partial halo to the S/SW in SOHO LASCO C2 and for few frames in STEREO A COR2 preceding data gap. The source is likely an eruption and subsequent C8.8 flare from AR 3370 (near S18E14) starting around 2023-07-14T18:35Z as seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. Noticeably deflected W. Arrival signature: Sharp increase in B-total from 7nT to 13nT. Sudden fluctuation in B-field components and increases in solar wind speed from ~350km/s to ~450km/s, in temperature and gradual increase in density. From Tarik Salman, LASSOS: definite shock arrival ~2023-07-16T18:35Z and another similar and more prominent feature in the plasma data around 2023-07-17T01:26Z (speed jump of 200 km/s) but nothing in the magnetic field. It is possible to have an admixture of HSS as well late on 2023-07-17.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-07-16T18:35Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-07-17T14:00Z (-10.0h, +10.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 60.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 
Radial velocity (km/s): 832km/s
Longitude (deg): W007
Latitude (deg): S24
Half-angular width (deg): 44

Notes: Captures full faint halo to south. Uncertain material content so low confidence in strength of impact. 
Space weather advisor: Yannick Foin/Kirk Waite

Lead Time: 13.58 hour(s)
Difference: -19.42 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2023-07-16T05:00Z

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